With Steve Lilywhite confirming that in boardroom discussions that U2 will not tour in the same year as Oasis, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that they will take 2026 as a 50th anniversary tour with all 4 original members. This would be something unprecedented in rock music.
It can also qualify as a cash grab "reunion tour" like Oasis and every other band because in reality - founder Larry Mullen Jr hasn't played live with them since 2019 tour of Asia-Pacific. But if you are talking the major market Europe and America - that would be 2018 - so U2 will have been 8 years removed from the original four members in a world tour (not a residency).
Nostalgia has been a selling point of late - check out Taylor Swift's Eras Tour that catered to the mid-2000's crowd who now have money to afford overpriced concerts. Check out the success of the Rolling Stones, Bruce Springsteen, and Paul McCartney Tours. Check out the reactions of the Oasis announcement. There are also been other smaller scale nostalgia cash grabs - Sammy Hagar touring Van Halen songs, or Smashing Pumpkins back on tour. Even Avril Lavigne has a greatest hits tour, and Alanis just came off a successful Jagged Little Pill anniversary tour. The Killers did a brief homestand residency in Las Vegas with the original members to celebrate 20 years of their debut album Hot Fuss.
Meanwhile, check the flip side which is Bon Jovi. They had a docuseries on their career which did pretty well. But it was meant to springboard their new album and hint at a possible tour after frontman Jon Bon Jovi's vocal chord surgery. Their new album earned a record of sorts - debuted top 10 in week one, then disappeared from top 200 in week two. All recent surveys for old bands/musicians are consistent in that the public does not care about new music anymore - just for them to play their old hits. Bon Jovi missed the mark there. Also, Bon Jovi never stopped touring - so the band as they are now is overexposed and news of vocal chord surgery will not add any urgency to the tour. The only thing that will make them relevant in touring again is if estranged lead guitarist and songwriter Richie Sambora rejoins the band.
So the next U2 move is very very predictable. They will celebrate 50 years as a band with a greatest hits world tour and celebrate the return of Larry Mullen Jr. The star of the tour will be their career, and not some new music or new technological concept. And this will happen in 2026 when they celebrate a round 50 years since that rehearsal in Larry Mullen Jr's kitchen. They will tour stadiums, they will tour the world, and they will aim to reclaim all their previous touring records that have since been broken. And I think they can very much do it.
In the meantime for 2024 to 2026, they will just do a little here and there to keep them in the public eye - another anniversary album release, or maybe a low key new album or single, or some appearance here and there. Maybe they might finally release that video of the Joshua Tree Tour that has been long rumored - which includes a new version of Heartland. But you heard it here first - U2 will be out to reclaim 2026.
Cheers,
J